Indiana's starting lineup is going to look a lot different this upcoming season. With four starters gone, Indiana needs players to fill in the vacancies left in the starting five.
Jalen Hood-Schifino and Trayce Jackson-Davis were both selected in the NBA Draft, while Miller Kopp and Race Thompson are both out of eligibility. Four of Indiana's top-five scorers from a season ago are gone.
Add on the transfer departures of Tamar Bates, Jordan Geronimo and Logan Duncomb and you're looking at losing seven of your top 10 scorers from last year's team.
It's not just the scoring that Indiana lost from last year's Round of 32 team. Indiana is losing players that accounted for 71 percent of its minutes played, 76 percent of its scoring, 77 percent of its made 3-pointers and 78 percent of its blocks and steals.
Xavier Johnson headlines the much smaller list of guys returning to Indiana. The now sixth-year guard will be joined by fellow experienced guards Trey Galloway and Anthony Leal in the backcourt. The final three returning players are all much less experienced. Sophom*ores Malik Reneau, CJ Gunn and Kaleb Banks have played a combined 79 games throughout their college careers, while Johnson alone has played 129.
With just eight players on scholarship - that number includes Gabe Cupps and Jakai Newton - at the outset of the offseason following the transfer departures, Indiana had a lot of holes to fill this summer. In this new era of college sports with the transfer portal, that is not as difficult a task these days.
Cupps and Newton should come in right away and be able to contribute off the bench at the point guard position. Cupps offers much more shooting than his fellow incoming freshman, but Newton has an innate ability to penetrate the defense and possesses a better defensive upside.
After bringing in three transfers and a top-10 recruit this offseason, Mike Woodson has retooled his team. Kel'el Ware headlines the group of incoming transfers. The former McDonalds All-American struggled in one season at Oregon and fell out of favor with the coaching staff in Eugene, but was one of the top players available in the portal. Two other additions from the portal, Payton Sparks and Anthony Walker provide the Hoosiers with great depth in the front court.
Following his decommitment from Duke, Mackenzie Mgbako immediately became one of the most coveted players available this summer. The incoming freshman and top-10 recruit in the class of 2023 chose Indiana over Kansas, further bolstering the Hoosiers' crop of newcomers.
The Hoosier's Zach Browning projects Indiana basketball's starting five for the 2023-24 season.
POINT GUARD: XAVIER JOHNSON
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You can go ahead and write in -- with a permanent marker -- Xavier Johnson as Indiana's starting point guard next season.
A great playmaker that excels at getting downhill and getting to the basket, Johnson will have the keys to the offense as the lead ball handler for the Hoosiers next season. His leadership off the floor will be just as important as it is on the floor with a team that is relatively young and inexperienced.
Johnson only played in 11 games last season after going down with an injury in early December when the Hoosiers visited Allen Fieldhouse and the Kansas Jayhawks. Before going down with the injury, Johnson was averaging nearly 10 points and about five assists per game while playing great as a point-of-attack defender.
Despite all Johnson does offensively for Indiana, it was the hole he left defensively that was felt the most by Indiana last season. The Hoosiers didn't have an answer for a lot of the talented guards around the Big Ten. Between Boo Buie's buzzer-beater to down Indiana vs. Northwestern, Tyson Walker's flame-throwing second half in East Lansing or Jalen Pickett dominating Indiana across two games last season, the Hoosiers struggled defending the conference's elite guards last season without Johnson.
Offensively it's Johnson's playmaking that stands out. His ability to blow by defenders, get into the teeth of the defense and kick out to open shooters is instrumental to the success of Indiana offensively. Johnson didn't play enough games to qualify, but his 1.75 assist-to-turnover ratio this past season would have slated him ninth in the Big Ten. That follows his first season at Indiana where he was 13th in the conference in assist-to-turnover ratio.
Johnson being able to create for others at such a high rate while keeping his turnovers at a manageable level will be key for Indiana this season as the starting point guard.
SHOOTING GUARD: TREY GALLOWAY
Trey Galloway started 25 games a season ago for the Hoosiers and checks all the boxes for an off-ball guard.
He's good with the ball in his hands as a creator for others, he can shoot the ball from deep and he is the other half of what will be one of the best defensive back courts in the Big Ten. He plays hard and will be key in the Hoosiers' success this season.
While Galloway doesn't have the foot speed that Johnson does to stay with some of the quicker guards in the conference, he is still a plus defender.
Offensively, there isn't much Galloway can't do. He can shoot the ball, he shot 46 percent from three on two attempts a game last season, he can create for himself off the bounce and he can create for others in a multitude of in-game situations. Galloway isn't necessarily great at anything on the offensive end, but he's good enough at most everything.
Galloway averaged career-highs in points, assists and rebounds last season while averaging a career low in turnovers. That is the most underrated part of Galloway's offensive game, he doesn't turn the ball over very often. His 11.5 percent turnover rate last year was better than Jalen Pickett, Terrence Shannon, Kobe Bufkin, Jahmir Young, Boo Buie, Chase Audige and his own teammate Jalen Hood-Schifino. The obvious caveat is that Galloway did not have the ball in his hands nearly as much as those other guys.
I do buy into Galloway's shooting, I don't think it was a one-year fluke. He's improved his 3-point percentage by 28 percentage points since his freshman year. While his free throw shooting numbers aren't the greatest -- a typical tell of whether someone can be a great shooter -- Galloway had the highest true shooting percentage -- 58 percent -- of any Indiana guard that got regular playing time last season.
While you should expect the percentages to drop a bit this season due to increased volume, there is no reason Galloway can't be a 40 percent 3-point shooter for the second season in a row and be a great complement to Johnson in the starting backcourt.
SMALL FORWARD: MACKENZIE MGBAKO
On the wing, Mackenzie Mgbako should get the nod to start. Mgbako, a top-10 recruit, was not brought into this Indiana program to come off the bench. If he wanted to come of the bench, he would've gone to Kansas.
Instead, he's going to Bloomington and figures to be one of the focal points of the offense in his freshman season. I imagine that was one of the main selling points for the Indiana staff in trying to persuade Mgbako to make Bloomington his next home.
Like many top prospects, Mgbako's goal is to get to the NBA. With the Hoosiers he will have a great opportunity to showcase his three-level scoring ability to NBA scouts without the pressure of running the offense like Hood-Schifino had to do during his freshman campaign a year ago.
Following Thursday's NBA Draft, many outlets began putting out their "way-too-early" 2024 NBA Mock Drafts. I saw mocks that had Mgbako as high as 13 and as low as 28 or even not in the first round. We're 12 months out from the 2024 NBA Draft and Mgbako will have a chance to improve -- or hurt -- his draft stock this season.
Mgbako's biggest strength is his ability to score from all over the court. He can score off the dribble and in catch-and-shoot situations, he's similar to Hood-Schifino in that sense. One of the knocks on Hood-Schifino last season was his inconsistent jumper, he shot 33 percent on 3.5 attempts per game from behind the arc. It got worse in catch-and-shoot situations where he shot a lowly 30 percent from three.
That's an area Mgbako should be better in. I see him getting the bulk of his looks from three in catch-and-shoot scenarios. Those are high-percentage looks and Indiana should be able to get them for Mgbako frequently either running him off of screens, in transition or off dribble penetration.
What separates Mgbako from Indiana's best 3-point shooters from last season is that he isn't a shooter, he's a scorer. Kopp took 68 percent of his shots from outside the 3-point line, Galloway took 40 percent of his shots from deep and Bates was at 51 percent last season. None of those three players were/are huge threats to attack a closeout and get to the basket, Mgbako is. To put those numbers into perspective, Hood-Schifino took 28 percent of his shots from 3-point range last season.
Mgbako is the type of player that can score from anywhere within 25 feet of the basket. The effect of him being a threat to score on the perimeter alone should benefit his teammates around him.
Mgbako is the type of player Indiana hasn't been in contention for on the recruiting trail in recent years, that has changed under Mike Woodson. A good year for Mgbako on the court that leads him to being selected in the first round of the 2024 NBA Draft would continue the momentum of restoring Indiana as a player on the national recruiting stage.
POWER FORWARD: MALIK RENEAU
At the other forward spot is Malik Reneau. I'm very high on Reneau. He's got great touch around the basket -- more so with his left hand than his right -- and does a solid job of getting to his spots on a consistent basis. If Reneau can extend his range out beyond the 3-point line this season he raises Indiana's ceiling significantly.
Defensively, Reneau leaves a lot to be desired. He has a tendency to commit unnecessary fouls and can get caught ball-watching from time to time. We can chalk those mistakes up to being a freshman, but he needs to improve on the defensive side of the ball.
Reneau averaged two and a half fouls per game while averaging just under 15 minutes last season. Per 40 minutes, Reneau averaged 6.8 fouls a game and his foul rate was 10 percent. He led the Hoosiers in all of those categories. Cleaning up the fouls, which largely came in situations where he hedged too hard or tried to draw a charge in a situation it wasn't warranted, is vital to him staying on the floor and realizing his potential for Indiana.
Last season Reneau was asked to play the four predominantly, alongside either Jackson-Davis or Thompson. I don't expect that to change this season. That led to miss-matches where he'd have to guard smaller, quicker wings and forwards that could take him off the dribble with ease.
That was never more clear than in Indiana's final game of the season against Miami in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. It was no secret that Miami liked to push the tempo and they did that against Indiana. They were simply quicker and faster than the Hoosiers at almost every position and it rendered Reneau useless against the Hurricanes. He played just 10 minutes in that game, tied for his second-lowest total of the season. In those 10 minutes, he registered an assist and a personal foul as his only numbers in the box score.
At 6-foot-9, 230 pounds, Reneau is a center being played as a forward. Until he can improve his quickness and make the necessary adjustments defensively, opposing offenses are going to continue to attack him on that end of the floor. Any potential improvement for Reneau defensively will determine how good Indiana's defense can really be this season.
CENTER: KEL'EL WARE
Rounding out the starting five, at the center spot, is Kel'el Ware. The transfer from Oregon and the former McDonald's All-American has NBA potential, but he didn't show much of it as a Duck last season.
Ware possesses great athleticism for a guy his size and we'll likely see a lot of lobs between him and Johnson in the pick-and-roll this season.
Similar to Reneau, if Ware can develop into more of a threat from 3-point range -- he shot below 30 percent last season -- the Hoosiers raise their ceiling considerably. If he's able to do that, it allows the Hoosiers to use him as a pick-and-pop option and even off the ball as a floor spacer in any potential Johnson and Reneau pick-and-rolls.
The defensive end of the floor is where Ware -- who with a strong season could play himself into the lottery -- shines. The defensive similarities with Jackson-Davis are uncanny. While Ware is about three inches taller, he's also about 30 pounds lighter. By the numbers the resemblance is clear: last season both players averaged 3.3 blocks per 40 minutes, they're defensive ratings were within 0.6 of each other and their block percentages were within 0.2 percentage points of each other. When comparing Ware and Jackson-Davis' freshmen seasons, Ware was as good if not better than the Indiana star in all of those statistics. Ware, like Jackson-Davis, will anchor what should be one of the top defenses in the Big Ten next season.
Ware's freshman season at Oregon was not without controversy. At the beginning of the season, Ware appeared to be an integral part of the Ducks. During the Phil Knight Invitational in Portland, Oregon over Thanksgiving weekend Ware played his best basketball of the season.
He had 18 points, nine rebounds and made two 3-pointers against eventual national champion UConn. He followed that game up with 17 and nine against Michigan State and 13 and seven against Villanova. All told, Ware averaged 16 points and eight rebounds across the three games Oregon played at the tournament.
That changed however in the new calendar year. In 14 games across January and February, Ware averaged just under four points and two and a half rebounds per game while playing less than 10 minutes a contest. Throw in a DNP coach's decision on Jan 29 against Utah as well as Dana Altman's comments about the freshman's lack of effort and you get a freshman season that resulted in Ware entering the transfer portal at the end of it.
I doubt Mike Woodson would have made Ware as much of a priority as he did in the portal if he didn't believe he could get the best out of him. Like with Mgbako, Ware is another opportunity -- if Ware has a great season and hears his name called at the 2024 NBA Draft -- for Indiana to rise back up the national recruiting rankings.
